The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.

I was born and raised in Lebanon and lived through the entire 1975-1991 war. I have seen all the events up close, and since then, I have had a lot of time to reflect on them with the benefit of hindsight.

What Israel is doing today in Lebanon is the same thing they did in 1982. The US is also doing the same thing by giving them the green light and political cover they need, and opposing any ceasefire attempt.

In 1982, Israel's claimed it wanted to stop PLO attacks. Today Israel claims they want to stop Hezbollah attacks. However, history has shown that in 1982 Israel’s intentions were much more expansive and sinister than simply stopping PLO attacks.

As they're doing now, Israel claimed in 1982 that their operation had very limited and specific objectives, and vehemently denied any intention of invading or occupying Lebanon. Yet in 1982 that is exactly what they did. The campaign took about 3 months and resulted in more death and destruction than the entire 16 years of war.

The events we find ourselves in now are no mere coincidence. This situation is more than just an Israeli reaction to the capture of two of it’s soldiers. This situation is part of a much bigger and far reaching plan. Let’s look closely at the present events:

First of all, Israel’s response to the Hezbollah attack was immediate. Now I can understand this if Israel was only responding by shelling south Lebanon from their artillery positions in northern Israel since these positions are probably always on high alert. But what we have seen right from the beginning is a very extensive air, naval and ground operation. This is a very complex operation involving multiple branches of the Israeli military and it would take a lot of time to plan and execute such an operation. It takes time for the politicians and the government to discuss and decide what to do. It takes time for the military to analyze intelligence, prepare and prioritize a target list. It takes time to mobilize pilots, prepare aircrafts, load ordinance, mobilize sailors, board battleships, sail and position them. Even by Israeli standards, their ability to mobilize and execute a campaign this big was way too fast.

What about statements being made by Israeli and US politicians and diplomats from various political parties on CNN and other news agencies? Don’t they sound way too suspiciously similar to each other? We all know that US is Israel’s biggest ally, but when was the last time so many politicians from different parties and different countries agreed so much on anything? How is it possible that all these people can stick to the exact same script?

Is it a coincidence that these events started during the G8 summit when the leaders of the world’s most powerful countries were meeting? In 2003, France and Russia openly criticized the US for invading Iraq. Is it a coincidence that these events started when world leader were all together allowing the US and UK to pressure them to stick to the same script and to not openly criticize Israel or demand a ceasefire? Is it a coincidence that the world leaders’ ability to put pressure on Israel has been neutralized?

Is it a coincidence that these events are happening after the Syrian army withdrew from Lebanon and Syrian influence has diminished? While the Israeli military has been able to defeat the Syrians before, clearly it is more advantageous to Israel to face Hezbollah on its own as opposed to facing a joint Hezbollah / Syrian force and possibly a Lebanese army obliged to fight alongside them.

After examining all these fact, I can’t help thinking that the current situation is no mere coincidence. What are the chances that the “stars would align” this much to make the situation so advantageous for Israel to conduct this operation? These events and their timing have a purpose. What is happening today is the result of extensive planning and preparation by Israel with the support of the US. All Israel needed was the right time to strike.

So what’s Israel’s aim? The parallels between current situation and 1982 lead to the inescapable conclusion that we are in a prelude to an invasion. Israel wants to re-invade Lebanon and re-occupy, indefinitely this time, south Lebanon. They want to “correct” the “mistake” they made in 2000 by pulling out.

What about a diplomatic solution? Isn’t there another way to resolve this? Well let’s look at the diplomatic options that are being talked about.

Israel, and in fact the US, have demanded that Lebanon disarm and disband Hezbollah. How is this possible? Whether this is attempted politically or militarily, it would lead to a civil war. Lebanon had first hand experience during the war of the consequences of trying to use the army in an internal conflict. In many cases, the army became divided and entire units mutinied – South Lebanon Army (closely allied to Israel), Lebanese Arab Army (closely aligned to PLO), 5th Brigade (closely aligned to Lebanese Forces), 6th brigade (closely aligned to Amal) etc – or completely disbanded. The reason for this is simple. The Lebanese army is made up of Lebanese people. If the people are divided then the army will be divided. This phenomenon is not unique to Lebanon. The same happened in US during the civil war.

Israel, and the US, have also demanded that Hezbollah return the two captured Israeli soldiers and to stop rocket attacks on Israel. Again, how is this possible? They might as well ask Hezbollah to rollover and play dead. Regardless of whether Hezbollah is right or wrong, and whether they intended for this escalation to happen or not, they have found themselves in a bloody battle with Israel. Surely, Hezbollah must think that the captured soldiers and the rockets are the best cards they’re holding. How can anyone expect them to want to give up their “ace in the hole”?

Clearly the diplomatic options put forward by Israel, and the US, are not viable. Israel and US are smart enough to know this. But these options can still serve a useful purpose. They are a pretext that Israel and US have tried a negotiated settlement but failed because Hezbollah and Lebanon could not comply. This will lead to the only remaining option – for Israel to invade Lebanon. It would also give Israel a way to justify it to the world. Israel, and the US, have masterminded a situation that has no other possible outcome.

Today we are only at the very beginning of this invasion. Much like what happened in the Iraq war and 1982 Israeli invasion, the current campaign is just the first phase, but a ground invasion will surely follow.

The current campaign, particularly the air strikes, have focused on strategic and high value targets including major roads and bridges, major infrastructure, airport and ports. Any military expert will agree that these are the requisites for an invasion.

It pains me to say this, but Israel will invade and they will occupy south Lebanon for a long time. There isn’t much that can be done about it now, and there’s no point denying the inevitable.

What about the Hezbollah resistance? Hezbollah is highly trained and sophisticated organization. They are battle hardened and have fought many battles – against Amal, against Syrian military when Syria was trying to reenter Beirut in 1986, and as resistance movement against Israel and the South Lebanon Army. To my recollection Hezbollah never lost a battle they fought. I’m not sure if they can withstand the might of Israeli invasion, but I do believe they will make them pay a heavy toll both in initial defense and later in resistance and guerilla attacks. Ultimately, perhaps decades from now, Hezbollah or a successor resistance movement will create the same conditions for Israel that compelled them to withdraw in 2000. In the meantime, we can expect a lot of causalities on both sides with innocent civilians paying the steepest price.

Those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

The lesson is Lebanon is a quagmire. There are no winners in Lebanon. Only losers.

Dear David,

I’m very surprised by your reaction.

First, you suggest that I’m biased and paranoid. No I am a realist. I prefer to stick to the facts using history as a guide to make a logical, rational and educated guess as to the next course of events. As I’ve said, you can’t do the same thing over and over again and expect a different outcome. Today’s events are ominously similar to those of 1982 (as well as other historical facts that I’m more than happy to share if you really want me to). I think it would be unwise to ignore the reality of current events and hope that somehow magically everything will work out.

Second, you suggest that I should blame Hezbollah as opposed to the US and Israel, and that Hezbollah caused these problems. My comments were not about blame. I’m not here to me to blame anyone. Blame is a waste of energy. It doesn’t accomplish anything. I have said nothing that suggests that I approve or disapprove of Hezbollah’s actions. I have said nothing to suggest that I think Israel does or does not have the right to defend herself.

But since you ask, let me express to you my views on this matter. Let’s take a simple analogy.

What if you and I lived side by side as neighbors in Smalltown USA. One night, you trespass into my backyard and steal my lawnmower. So, because I have the right to defend myself, I trespass into your backyard, steal your patio furniture, destroy your barbeque and rough up your kids. Now do you think under the laws of the US I could justify my actions as self defense? Is there any lawyer, no matter how creative, that would possibly argue that my actions were justified in any court of law? Is there one legal system in the world that would consider my actions just?

Well the real answer is yes and no. No I would probably not be able to get away with this type of behavior under the laws of just about any country for the simple reason that two wrongs don’t make a right.

But it would seem that under international law, when it comes to Israel, the answer is yes. Even before UN resolution 1559 which was passed two years ago, there were UN resolutions 425 and 426 and others that were passed decades ago demanding Israel to withdraw from Lebanon and stop violating it’s sovereignty including its airspace. So what gives Israel the right to violate Lebanon’s airspace, conduct military operations against it’s people and infrastructure, and occupy it’s territory? This has been going on since 1978. In reality this is not self defense. This is aggression.

Third, you mention the tyrants in Iran and Syria. Well, I have not been to Iran so I don’t know what it’s like to live there first hand. I do hear a lot of mixed opinions, but I prefer to make up my own mind my based on first hand observations. I did experience life in Beirut under Syrian rule and it was not pleasant at all. In any case, I did not mention them for three reasons: One, I think by now everyone knows that they are the major sponsors of Hezbollah. Western media and politicians have done a great job making sure we don’t forget this. Two, they are not the ones who are bombing Lebanon right now. Israel is. Three, I have thought about the many possible scenarios and outcomes of the current events. None of the possible scenarios would have Syria or Iran coming out on top. At best, this won’t directly impact them. The more likely scenario is that they will lose the Hezbollah card. At worst, these events will escalate militarily against them and they will experience some combination of weakened regime and severe damage to their military and strategic assets. So if there is no possible upside to them, and I’m sure they’re smart enough to know it, it is not logical to think they are behind what is happening.

Fourth, you ask why groups like Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda and Hamas exist. In my view there are two major reasons. It doesn’t mean I’m trying to justify or agree with these groups. I’m just making a logical argument:

One, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. It’s the law of nature. After World War I, Jews from all over the world immigrated to Palestine which at that time was under British rule. Britain was fulfilling the Belfour Promise. The Jews took land from Arabs, rightly or wrongly – it’s not up to me to judge, and eventually formed the state of Israel. The Arabs and Moslems feel that they have been displaced and threatened by this action and they react. Then Israel reacts, then they react. Each action-reaction causes another escalation.

Two, and this is the real problem, Arab and Moslem nations have been unable or unwilling to develop modern capable armies. There are many reasons for this (which I will save for a future history lesson), but the result is a lack of balance of power between Israel on one hand and Arab and Moslem nations on the other. Another law of nature is equilibrium. The reason the cold war remained cold is that there was a balance of power between US and Soviet Union. While this balance was achieved in a deplorable way, namely mutually assured destruction, it did serve it’s purpose. In the five decades the cold war lasted, there was not a single direct confrontation between US and Soviets. The rise of groups like Hezbollah is the result of the equation trying to balance itself. If Arab and Moslem nations cannot build conventional armies, they will build non-conventional armies.

So it is ironic that Israel has created it’s own enemies. I’m not saying Israel deserves them. I’m not saying it doesn’t. I’m just saying these groups would not exist today if Israel had not done what it did.

Fifth, you suggest that they should wipe themselves off the planet, and at the same time you ask why there is so much hatred. Clearly, you’ll have to answer this question for yourself. The hatred is not on my side it is on yours. I do not want war, death or destruction. I want peace. But wishing won’t make it so. I can’t ignore the reality of the current events. The reader can choose to agree or disagree with my conclusion that the invasion is inevitable, but I would hope that Lebanese people reading this will realize that it is a real possibility and that they should prepare for the worst (find lower risk areas or shelters, and stock up on food, water and medicine). They should have a contingency plan as you put it.

Six, nothing I’ve ever said suggests that I believe violence can be justified in the name of God. It cannot. Since you ask, I am proud to be a Lebanese-Canadian and a Moslem. I never have and never will have any affiliation to any party or militia whatsoever. Please educate and inform yourself instead of making bigoted, uninformed comments. Islam forbids us from being the aggressor and forbids violence. Islam demands that we defend ourselves against the aggressors, but also demands that we make peace with them as soon as they stop their aggression.